Copyright © 2010 Times of India
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The historic women’s reservation Bill has polarised the polity and that’s bound to affect the running of the UPA government at the Centre. The immediate impact of the acrimonious debate in the Rajya Sabha will be on the UPA’s strength in the Lok Sabha.
With the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal withdrawing support to the UPA government, the latter now has a wafer-thin majority in the Lok Sabha. That the Trinamul Congress, a crucial ally with 19 MPs, chose not to vote with the government must also rankle. Currently the UPA tally in the Lok Sabha, inclusive of Trinamul members, adds up to only 268. That’s four short of a simple majority. There is no immediate danger to the government since it is assured of the outside support of some MPs. Moreover, no political party may want to precipitate a mid-term election. But the Congress will be even more dependent on allies hereafter.
Does this mean a gain for the BJP? Not really. The distribution of seats across parties in the Lok Sabha is skewed against the BJP-led NDA. A consolidation of parties estranged from the UPA in favour of NDA is unlikely at this moment. The SP and RJD spearheaded the opposition against the Bill and targeted the UPA on the pretext that it is against the interests of minority communities and other backward classes (OBCs). They hope to rebuild their old social alliance that included the OBCs and Muslims on this issue. Hence, it’s improbable that they’ll reach out to the BJP, which shares the Congress’s views on quotas for women in Parliament. The Bill has also created divisions within the Janata Dal (United), a member of the NDA. A split in that party could affect the alliance’s prospects in the coming Bihar assembly polls.
The immediate focus of parties like the SP, RJD and BSP will be the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar and UP. These parties will aim for a polarisation of voters along caste and religious lines by targeting the women’s Bill. How far that’ll succeed is anybody’s guess. The assumption that communal and caste identities are likely to override gender in an election seems to be driving the politics of SP and RJD. They believe women cutting across caste, class and religious divisions are unlikely to form a vote bloc. The Congress seems to think that women, like youth, could be cultivated as a constituency. It’s a gambit aimed at shifting the ground from politics centred on caste and community, a throw of the dice that offers interesting possibilities for the future.
